Deutsche Bank analysts are optimistic about Nio Inc’s potential for success with their third-generation ES8, forecasting an average monthly sales volume of 3,000 units. This projection is based on the competitive pricing of the large electric SUV, which could potentially see sales return to historical peak levels for an extended period.
The ES8, Nio’s first mass-produced vehicle, was introduced in June 2018 and saw its highest monthly sales of 3,089 units in November 2018 and 3,318 units in December 2018. With the unveiling of the third-generation ES8 and the commencement of pre-sales, Nio is gearing up for the official launch at Nio Day 2025 next month.
The new ES8 comes with a starting price of RMB 416,800 ($58,030) including a 100-kWh battery pack, marking a significant reduction from the previous version. Additionally, under the BaaS (battery as a service) plan, the starting price is even lower at RMB 308,800. Deutsche Bank suggests that the final starting price could be around RMB 399,000, considering industry norms.
Compared to rival models like the Aito M9 EV, Aito M8 EV, Li L9, and the upcoming Zeekr 9X, the third-generation ES8 stands out not only for its larger size but also for its competitive pricing. The analysts at Deutsche Bank have projected Nio Group’s annual sales volumes to reach 320,000 units in 2025, with further increases to 460,000 units in 2026 and 570,000 units in 2027.
The higher-than-expected sales have led to an adjustment in the forecast for Nio’s net loss in 2025, from RMB 17.76 billion to RMB 17.57 billion, prompting a target price increase from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00. This positive outlook has also translated into a surge in Nio’s stock price, with a 6.8 percent increase to HK$43.98 in early trading in Hong Kong.
Since July, Nio’s stock has seen a significant 60 percent rise in Hong Kong, driven in part by the launch of the Onvo L90. With the promising prospects for the third-generation ES8 and Nio’s overall growth trajectory, the company seems poised for continued success in the electric vehicle market.
