Elon Musk recently made bold claims regarding Tesla’s self-driving capabilities during a conference call following the release of their Q1 2025 financial results. Musk expressed confidence in Tesla’s self-driving technology, outlining key milestones and timelines for the future.
One of the major announcements was the upcoming launch of Tesla’s paid autonomous ride-sharing service in Austin in June. Musk clarified that the fleet would consist of Model Y vehicles, and Tesla is currently training a fleet specifically for operations in Austin. The initial fleet size is expected to be “10 to 20 vehicles” on day one, marking a significant shift in Tesla’s approach to autonomous driving.
Despite Musk’s repeated claims over the years, he reiterated that Tesla’s self-driving technology would start contributing positively to the company’s financials in the middle of next year. He boldly stated that “millions of Teslas” would be operating autonomously by the second half of next year, aiming for a dominant market share in the autonomous driving sector.
While Tesla’s stock saw a 4% rise in after-hours trading following Musk’s comments, skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of achieving these ambitious goals. Tesla’s self-driving technology has faced challenges, with consumer vehicles still requiring frequent driver interventions.
Electrek’s Analysis
While Tesla’s upcoming launch in Austin is a step in the right direction, questions remain about the scalability of their current self-driving technology. The geo-fenced and teleoperation-assisted system may not translate seamlessly to consumer vehicles as promised.
Tesla’s focus on solving interventions specific to driving in Austin raises concerns about the gap between the internal ride-hailing fleet and unsupervised self-driving in consumer vehicles. The road to achieving Musk’s ambitious targets by next year appears challenging, with significant hurdles to overcome.
While Tesla’s self-driving technology shows promise, achieving full autonomy and widespread adoption within such a short timeframe remains uncertain. Investors and industry experts will be closely watching Tesla’s progress in the self-driving space to see if Musk’s predictions finally come to fruition.
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