The future of the manual gearbox in the automotive industry is facing uncertainty. As the shift towards electrification and emissions-conscious vehicles accelerates, the role of manual transmissions is being called into question. Will they fade into obscurity, or will they continue to hold their place in the evolving automotive landscape?
Historically, manual gearboxes have been a popular choice among UK car buyers, with over 50% of new-car registrations featuring a manual transmission in 2019. However, this trend has been on a steady decline, with only 28.7% of new-car registrations opting for manual gearboxes in 2023. The rise of automatic transmissions, particularly in the context of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), has played a significant role in this shift.
The increasing popularity of BEVs, which typically use a single-speed transmission, has led to a decrease in the demand for manual gearboxes. As more drivers transition to electric vehicles, the need for multiple gears and manual transmission becomes less relevant. This trend is reflected in the growing number of automatic-only new driving licenses issued in the UK.
Automotive manufacturers are also phasing out manual transmissions due to the high cost of development and declining consumer demand. Modern automatic transmissions, managed by advanced computer systems, offer improved fuel economy, reduced emissions, and a smoother driving experience. Dual-clutch and continuously variable transmissions have become increasingly sophisticated, surpassing the performance of manual gearboxes in many aspects.
The shift towards automatic transmissions is further driven by emissions considerations and regulatory frameworks aimed at reducing vehicle-related pollution. The EU’s stringent COâ‚‚ emission standards and the UK’s ZEV mandate are pushing manufacturers towards cleaner, more efficient technologies. Taxes and restrictions on higher-polluting vehicles, such as Ultra Low Emission Zones, are also influencing gearbox preferences.
Despite the decline in new-car sales, manual transmissions continue to hold a presence in the used-car market. Their cost-effectiveness, simplicity, and reliability appeal to certain market segments. Additionally, there is a growing interest in integrating manual elements into the electrified driving experience. Car manufacturers like Toyota are exploring simulated manual transmission systems for EVs to preserve the engaging driving experience of manual cars.
While manual transmissions may no longer dominate the automotive landscape, they are unlikely to face complete obsolescence. The tactile engagement and sense of control they provide appeal to driving enthusiasts who cherish the art of driving. Performance cars, such as the Toyota Yaris GR and Mazda MX-5, continue to offer manual transmissions as a key element of the driving experience. Ultimately, the future of the manual gearbox may lie in striking a balance between tradition and innovation in the evolving automotive industry.
