Elon Musk’s Tesla Robotaxi Bet Costs Fans Big
Just a few weeks ago, Elon Musk touted Tesla’s promised Robotaxi as a “money-making opportunity,” but those who followed his advice ended up losing big.
One of Musk’s fans lost a significant $50,000 in a bet on Tesla’s Robotaxi.
Prediction markets have been on the rise, allowing people to bet on various events, including Tesla-related outcomes. Platforms like Polymarket offer several markets related to Tesla, such as the launch of the Robotaxi service.
One specific market, “Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?” garnered attention after Musk commented on it, claiming it was a “money-making opportunity.”
Initially, the market gave Tesla a 14% chance of launching the service, but with Musk’s endorsement, over $7 million has been traded on the market. Despite Tesla’s claimed launch on June 22nd, the market currently gives Tesla less than a 1% chance with just a day left in June.
The resolution rules of the market state that Tesla must publicly launch a fully driverless taxi service, without any human intervention, to count as a successful launch. However, Tesla’s current service doesn’t meet these criteria.
One individual lost $50,000 following Musk’s advice, while another lost $28,000 and is now betting another $27,000 on Tesla achieving the goal by the end of July.
Polymarket’s odds only put a 21% chance on Tesla delivering the service before August. Another market predicts if Tesla will launch unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) by the end of 2025, with a 59% chance of success.
Polymarket users can buy shares in “yes” or “no,” aiming to beat the current odds before the timeline ends.
Electrek’s Take
Musk’s confidence in Tesla’s Robotaxi blinded him to the market’s actual expectations, leading fans to lose significant amounts in bets. Historically, betting against Musk’s self-driving timelines has been a safer bet, given his track record of overestimating delivery dates.
Polymarket’s markets provide insight into public sentiment regarding Tesla’s self-driving capabilities, offering users a chance to participate in the speculation surrounding the company’s future achievements.
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