The shift towards electric vehicles is driving a surge in demand for lightweight and powerful lithium-ion batteries. As the world looks to reduce carbon emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources, the need for lithium is set to grow exponentially over the next 25 years. A recent study conducted by the University of California, Davis, and published in Nature Sustainability on May 29, delves into the potential of new mining operations and battery recycling to meet this escalating demand.
Alissa Kendall, the Ray B. Krone endowed professor of Environmental Engineering at UC Davis, highlighted the significance of batteries as a significant source of lithium demand. With global demand for lithium skyrocketing by 30% between 2022 and 2023, due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, it is crucial to address concerns about lithium supply constraints.
Traditionally, lithium was sourced from a small number of mines, but the rapid growth in demand has necessitated the exploration of new mining operations. However, opening a new lithium mine is a long and costly process that can be hindered by environmental regulations and local opposition. This poses a challenge as any disruption in the supply chain could impede the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, prolonging the use of combustion engine vehicles and their associated carbon emissions.
Currently, lithium is extracted from three main sources: briny water from deep underground, rocks, and sedimentary clays. While Australia is a major supplier of lithium from rocks, parts of South America and the United States also have significant lithium deposits in brine and clay. Additionally, recycling old batteries presents a viable source of lithium, although it is still a costly process compared to traditional mining methods.
The study conducted by Pablo Busch, a graduate student at UC Davis, and Alissa Kendall, modeled the future supply and demand dynamics of lithium under various scenarios. They projected that under a high-demand scenario, as many as 85 new lithium deposits would need to be opened by 2050. However, this number could be significantly reduced to as few as 15 new mines through policies promoting smaller batteries and widespread battery recycling.
The researchers emphasized the crucial role of battery recycling in mitigating the need for new mines. By meeting a small percentage of demand through recycling, the pressure on new mining operations can be alleviated. Timing is key, as new mines need to be operational to supply lithium for recycling. Efforts to improve the efficiency of electric cars, expand the public charging network, and encourage smaller vehicle sizes can also help moderate lithium demand.
In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of sustainable lithium sourcing practices to support the transition to electric vehicles. By balancing new mining operations with battery recycling and promoting energy-efficient practices, the industry can meet growing lithium demands while minimizing environmental impact. The research was funded by grants from the Heising-Simons Foundation and the ClimateWorks Foundation and authored by Yunzhu Chen and Prosper Ogbonna, in addition to Busch and Kendall from UC Davis.
