GlobalData has revised its 2025 global light vehicle (LV) production forecast, reducing it by 300,000 units to 92.3 million units, representing a 2.4% year-on-year increase. The adjustment is driven by a more cautious outlook for demand in both European and North American LV production.
Recent tariff announcements in the US pose significant downside risks to North American LV production forecasts for 2025, with potential impacts exceeding 500,000 units. GlobalData’s current base forecast for North America stands at 15.5 million units, reflecting a 0.7% year-on-year increase, but does not account for lasting tariffs. Analyst Justin Cox emphasized the elevated downside risks from a more entrenched protectionist policy in the region.
In Europe, slower-than-expected demand contributed to a decline of over 5% year-on-year in Pan-European LV production in December 2024, with the full-year figure dropping to 17.45 million units, slightly weaker than earlier estimates. For 2025, GlobalData has adjusted the European LV production outlook to 17.6 million units, up by 0.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a weaker demand environment.
While new model launches are expected to drive activity in Europe, challenges related to vehicle pricing and meeting stricter emission targets could impact affordability and demand-led LV output. In China, the 2025 LV production forecast remains unchanged at 31.4 million units, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase. However, uncertainties in the global trading environment pose additional risks to LV output in China, as well as in key export hubs like Korea and Japan.
GlobalData underscores the importance of monitoring trade dynamics and regulatory developments to assess their potential impact on the automotive industry. As the industry navigates through various challenges, including tariffs and emission targets, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adapt to changing market conditions to ensure sustainable growth.
Overall, the revised forecasts highlight the need for agility and strategic planning in the automotive sector, as companies strive to maintain competitiveness and meet evolving consumer demands. By staying informed and proactive, industry players can mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities in a rapidly changing landscape.
