The US solar industry has seen significant growth in the first half of 2025, with nearly 18 gigawatts of new capacity added to the grid. Despite challenges from the Trump administration’s anti-clean energy policies, solar and storage accounted for 82% of all new power added to the grid during this period. However, the outlook for future growth is not as optimistic as it may seem, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
The latest US Solar Market Insight report from SEIA and Wood Mackenzie warns that policies like Trump’s HR1 bill could potentially reduce US solar growth by 44 gigawatts by 2030, representing an 18% decline from previous forecasts. This could result in a total loss of 55 gigawatts of solar projects by 2030. SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper expressed concerns about the administration’s actions stifling investment and raising energy costs for families and businesses.
Interestingly, the report found that a majority of new solar capacity this year has been built in states that Trump won in the 2024 election. States like Texas, Indiana, Arizona, and Florida were among the top 10 for new installations, despite being red states.
On the manufacturing side, the US added 13 gigawatts of new solar module capacity in the first half of the year, bringing total domestic capacity to 55 gigawatts. However, there was a stall in momentum in the second quarter due to federal policy uncertainty affecting private capital investment.
Looking ahead, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie anticipate that solar deployment could be 4% lower than pre-HR1 projections by 2030. Despite challenges, near-term growth is expected to be driven by projects already in progress, developers rushing to meet tax credit deadlines, and increasing electricity demand as gas generation becomes more expensive and less reliable.
The report also highlights the risks posed by federal permitting changes, with a Department of the Interior order potentially obstructing about 44 gigawatts of planned solar projects. States like Arizona, California, and Nevada are expected to be most affected by these changes.
SEIA has called on Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to reconsider these policies, warning of potential job losses, higher power bills, and a weaker US economy if solar growth is hindered. The association also emphasized the importance of solar in meeting surging electricity demand and ensuring grid reliability.
In conclusion, the future of the US solar industry faces challenges from federal policies and permitting changes, but demand for reliable, affordable, American-made energy remains strong. It is crucial for the government to support the growth of the solar industry to secure a sustainable energy future and maintain competitiveness in the global AI race.
