The year 2024 proved to be a significant one for the electric vehicle (EV) market, with various ups and downs across different regions. As we look ahead to the future, it is essential to understand the forecasts and potential impacts of political changes on the industry. Neil King, the head of forecasting at EV Volumes, recently shared some insights on the global outlook for EVs in a discussion with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.
According to the latest data from EV Volumes, the global light vehicle market, consisting of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2024. This marks an improvement from the previous forecast of 0.9% in September, with China leading the way in offsetting downturns in Europe and other regions.
The forecast for the global EV market share has been revised upwards to 20.4%, encompassing both battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. EV sales are projected to increase by 25% in 2024, with over 17.7 million EVs expected to be sold globally. While this outlook represents a positive trend, challenges remain in certain regions.
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency could have a significant impact on the global EV market. Policy changes, such as adjustments to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), may affect the adoption of EVs. Despite potential obstacles, EVs are still projected to account for a growing share of light-vehicle sales in the coming years.
In North America, the automotive market is showing signs of recovery, with the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to stimulate demand. However, uncertainties loom, especially with the imposition of import duties on EVs from China. The re-election of Donald Trump adds another layer of complexity to the forecast for EV adoption in the region.
Europe has faced challenges in 2024, with changes to incentives and subsidy programs impacting the EV market. Despite these obstacles, the region is expected to see a return to growth in 2025, driven by the rollout of new EV models and ambitious CO2 emission targets.
China continues to lead the way in EV adoption, with a strong focus on plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). The Chinese market is forecasted to see continued growth in EV sales, with government support for cleaner technologies driving the transition towards electrification.
In non-Triad markets, which include countries outside of North America, Europe, and Asia, EV adoption is on the rise. Despite challenges such as high tariffs on vehicle imports, these markets are expected to see an increase in EV sales in the coming years.
Overall, the global outlook for EVs in 2024 and beyond is positive, with growth expected in key regions despite the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead. The transition to electric mobility is gaining momentum, and the industry is poised for further advancements in the years to come.
